June 2024 Depository Outlook Survey

The purpose of this monthly survey is to collect information from US depositories on a number of relevant topics.
A total of 96 respondents have answered this month's survey.
A total of 104 respondents answered the previous month's survey.
What type of financial institution do you work for?
Bank:
84%
Credit Union:
13%
Saving & Loan:
2%
Other:
0%
Previous Month:
Bank:
78%
Credit Union:
17%
Saving & Loan:
2%
Other:
0%
What asset size range does your institution fall into?
0-500mm:
34%
500mm-1b:
26%
1bil-5bil:
33%
5bil-10bil:
4%
>10bil:
2%
Previous Month:
0-500mm:
40%
500mm-1b:
25%
1bil-5bil:
25%
5bil-10bil:
4%
>10bil:
1%
Where do you expect the Fed Funds rate to be 12 months from now?
< 3.5%:
1%
3.5% - 4.0%:
1%
4.0% - 4.5%:
17%
4.5% - 5.0%:
61%
5.0% - 5.5%:
16%
5.5% - 6.0%:
0%
> 6.0%:
1%
Previous Month:
< 3.5%:
0%
3.5% - 4.0%:
0%
4.0% - 4.5%:
17%
4.5% - 5.0%:
56%
5.0% - 5.5%:
22%
5.5% - 6.0%:
3%
> 6.0%:
0%
Where do you expect the 10yr UST rate to be 12 months from now?
< 3.0%:
0%
3.0% - 3.5%:
6%
3.5% - 4.0%:
36%
4.0% - 4.5%:
45%
4.5% - 5.0%:
11%
> 5.0%:
0%
Previous Month:
< 3.0%:
0%
3.0% - 3.5%:
0%
3.5% - 4.0%:
30%
4.0% - 4.5%:
46%
4.5% - 5.0%:
16%
> 5.0%:
3%
What are your expectations for deposit/funding costs?
< 0.75%:
1%
0.75% - 1.00%:
2%
1.00% - 1.25%:
12%
1.25% - 1.50%:
13%
> 1.50%:
70%
Previous Month:
< 0.75%:
0%
0.75% - 1.00%:
3%
1.00% - 1.25%:
6%
1.25% - 1.50%:
9%
> 1.50%:
78%
What are your expectations for newly originated CRE loan yields?
< 6.0%:
0%
6.0% - 6.75%:
9%
6.75% - 7.50%:
19%
7.50% - 8.25%:
43%
8.25% - 9.0%:
23%
> 9.0%:
2%
Previous Month:
< 6.0%:
0%
6.0% - 6.75%:
4%
6.75% - 7.50%:
21%
7.50% - 8.25%:
40%
8.25% - 9.0%:
25%
> 9.0%:
5%
What is your target Loan-to-Deposit ratio?
< .50:
5%
.50-.65:
8%
.65-.80:
36%
.80-1.00:
45%
> 1.00:
4%
Previous Month:
< .50:
5%
.50-.65:
5%
.65-.80:
25%
.80-1.00:
55%
> 1.00:
6%
What are your expectations for loan growth over the next 12 months?
Decline > 10%:
0%
Decline 0-10%:
4%
Neutral (no change):
20%
Grow 0-10%:
68%
Grow > 10%:
3%
Previous Month:
Decline > 10%:
0%
Decline 0-10%:
2%
Neutral (no change):
21%
Grow 0-10%:
74%
Grow > 10%:
1%
What are your expectations for deposit growth over the next 12 months?
Decline > 10%:
0%
Decline 0-10%:
10%
Neutral (no change):
28%
Grow 0-10%:
60%
Grow > 10%:
0%
Previous Month:
Decline > 10%:
0%
Decline 0-10%:
7%
Neutral (no change):
27%
Grow 0-10%:
58%
Grow > 10%:
3%
What is your duration target for new purchases?
0-1.5yrs:
8%
1.5-3.0yr:
16%
3.0-4.5yrs:
44%
4.5-6.0yrs:
25%
> 6.0yrs:
2%
Previous Month:
0-1.5yrs:
10%
1.5-3.0yr:
24%
3.0-4.5yrs:
35%
4.5-6.0yrs:
20%
> 6.0yrs:
1%
How much do you expect your portfolio to grow (shrink) over the next 12 months?
Decline > 10%:
8%
Decline 0-10%:
40%
Neutral (no change):
23%
Grow 0-10%:
22%
Grow > 10%:
2%
Previous Month:
Decline > 10%:
8%
Decline 0-10%:
42%
Neutral (no change):
23%
Grow 0-10%:
25%
Grow > 10%:
0%
What investment sector are you actively purchasing? (Choose Multiple)
Agency:
48%
MBS:
46%
CMO:
28%
Municipals:
23%
ACMBS:
9%
SBA:
17%
Other:
20%
Previous Month:
Agency:
47%
MBS:
37%
CMO:
26%
Municipals:
21%
ACMBS:
4%
SBA:
17%
Other:
23%
Rank the following portfolio objectives in level of importance to your institution.
Liquidity:
#1
Earnings:
#2
Safety of Principal:
#3
Total Return:
#4
Manage Balance Sheet IRR:
#5
Previous Month:
Liquidity:
#1
Earnings:
#2
Safety of Principal:
#3
Total Return:
#4
Manage Balance Sheet IRR:
#5
What is your duration target for the investment portfolio?
0-1.5yrs:
5%
1.5-3.0yr:
21%
3.0-4.5yrs:
48%
4.5-6.0yrs:
20%
> 6.0yrs:
3%
Previous Month:
0-1.5yrs:
4%
1.5-3.0yr:
23%
3.0-4.5yrs:
47%
4.5-6.0yrs:
22%
> 6.0yrs:
0%
What is your biggest portfolio concern over the next 12 months?
Yield erosion:
28%
Price volatility:
16%
Credit quality:
5%
Liquidity:
48%
Previous Month:
Yield erosion:
19%
Price volatility:
24%
Credit quality:
4%
Liquidity:
49%