March 2024 Depository Outlook Survey

The purpose of this monthly survey is to collect information from US depositories on a number of relevant topics.
A total of 101 respondents have answered this month's survey.
A total of 109 respondents answered the previous month's survey.
What type of financial institution do you work for?
Bank:
84%
Credit Union:
9%
Saving & Loan:
4%
Other:
0%
Previous Month:
Bank:
84%
Credit Union:
13%
Saving & Loan:
1%
Other:
0%
What asset size range does your institution fall into?
0-500mm:
40%
500mm-1b:
25%
1bil-5bil:
21%
5bil-10bil:
6%
>10bil:
1%
Previous Month:
0-500mm:
38%
500mm-1b:
22%
1bil-5bil:
27%
5bil-10bil:
4%
>10bil:
5%
Where do you expect the Fed Funds rate to be 12 months from now?
< 3.5%:
0%
3.5% - 4.0%:
1%
4.0% - 4.5%:
26%
4.5% - 5.0%:
59%
5.0% - 5.5%:
8%
5.5% - 6.0%:
1%
> 6.0%:
0%
Previous Month:
< 3.5%:
0%
3.5% - 4.0%:
2%
4.0% - 4.5%:
19%
4.5% - 5.0%:
67%
5.0% - 5.5%:
8%
5.5% - 6.0%:
0%
> 6.0%:
0%
Where do you expect the 10yr UST rate to be 12 months from now?
< 3.0%:
0%
3.0% - 3.5%:
3%
3.5% - 4.0%:
47%
4.0% - 4.5%:
40%
4.5% - 5.0%:
4%
> 5.0%:
0%
Previous Month:
< 3.0%:
0%
3.0% - 3.5%:
6%
3.5% - 4.0%:
42%
4.0% - 4.5%:
44%
4.5% - 5.0%:
3%
> 5.0%:
1%
What are your expectations for deposit/funding costs?
< 0.75%:
1%
0.75% - 1.00%:
3%
1.00% - 1.25%:
13%
1.25% - 1.50%:
15%
> 1.50%:
62%
Previous Month:
< 0.75%:
1%
0.75% - 1.00%:
4%
1.00% - 1.25%:
12%
1.25% - 1.50%:
14%
> 1.50%:
66%
What are your expectations for newly originated CRE loan yields?
< 6.0%:
0%
6.0% - 6.75%:
6%
6.75% - 7.50%:
18%
7.50% - 8.25%:
46%
8.25% - 9.0%:
22%
> 9.0%:
2%
Previous Month:
< 6.0%:
1%
6.0% - 6.75%:
5%
6.75% - 7.50%:
31%
7.50% - 8.25%:
37%
8.25% - 9.0%:
18%
> 9.0%:
5%
What is your target Loan-to-Deposit ratio?
< .50:
6%
.50-.65:
5%
.65-.80:
31%
.80-1.00:
44%
> 1.00:
8%
Previous Month:
< .50:
3%
.50-.65:
7%
.65-.80:
27%
.80-1.00:
58%
> 1.00:
2%
What are your expectations for loan growth over the next 12 months?
Decline > 10%:
0%
Decline 0-10%:
4%
Neutral (no change):
15%
Grow 0-10%:
73%
Grow > 10%:
3%
Previous Month:
Decline > 10%:
0%
Decline 0-10%:
2%
Neutral (no change):
21%
Grow 0-10%:
70%
Grow > 10%:
3%
What are your expectations for deposit growth over the next 12 months?
Decline > 10%:
0%
Decline 0-10%:
12%
Neutral (no change):
33%
Grow 0-10%:
50%
Grow > 10%:
0%
Previous Month:
Decline > 10%:
0%
Decline 0-10%:
11%
Neutral (no change):
33%
Grow 0-10%:
50%
Grow > 10%:
0%
What is your duration target for new purchases?
0-1.5yrs:
3%
1.5-3.0yr:
22%
3.0-4.5yrs:
41%
4.5-6.0yrs:
22%
> 6.0yrs:
3%
Previous Month:
0-1.5yrs:
6%
1.5-3.0yr:
15%
3.0-4.5yrs:
41%
4.5-6.0yrs:
26%
> 6.0yrs:
4%
How much do you expect your portfolio to grow (shrink) over the next 12 months?
Decline > 10%:
10%
Decline 0-10%:
39%
Neutral (no change):
24%
Grow 0-10%:
22%
Grow > 10%:
0%
Previous Month:
Decline > 10%:
8%
Decline 0-10%:
42%
Neutral (no change):
27%
Grow 0-10%:
19%
Grow > 10%:
0%
What investment sector are you actively purchasing? (Choose Multiple)
Agency:
46%
MBS:
45%
CMO:
32%
Municipals:
28%
ACMBS:
2%
SBA:
23%
Other:
20%
Previous Month:
Agency:
46%
MBS:
46%
CMO:
28%
Municipals:
26%
ACMBS:
5%
SBA:
20%
Other:
14%
Rank the following portfolio objectives in level of importance to your institution.
Liquidity:
#1
Earnings:
#2
Safety of Principal:
#3
Manage Balance Sheet IRR:
#4
Total Return:
#5
Previous Month:
Liquidity:
#1
Earnings:
#2
Safety of Principal:
#3
Manage Balance Sheet IRR:
#4
Total Return:
#5
What is your duration target for the investment portfolio?
0-1.5yrs:
2%
1.5-3.0yr:
21%
3.0-4.5yrs:
49%
4.5-6.0yrs:
23%
> 6.0yrs:
0%
Previous Month:
0-1.5yrs:
4%
1.5-3.0yr:
22%
3.0-4.5yrs:
47%
4.5-6.0yrs:
23%
> 6.0yrs:
0%
What is your biggest portfolio concern over the next 12 months?
Yield erosion:
17%
Price volatility:
25%
Credit quality:
4%
Liquidity:
51%
Previous Month:
Yield erosion:
20%
Price volatility:
19%
Credit quality:
8%
Liquidity:
50%